RIMROCK MACRO
1,044 INDICATORS·15 CATEGORIES·PUBLIC DATA · FRED · U.S. TREASURY·UPDATED 2026-06-18
← Macro Models

Yield Curve (10y-3m)

Baked-in macro model · inputs: UST10Y, UST3MO, T10Y3M, T10Y2Y
NORMAL
What this measures. Rates.
0.002.004.006.008.00 4.45 % 1995200020052010201520202025
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inversion precedes recession by 6-18m; re-steepening from inversion often marks onset.

As of 2026-06-11  |  UST10Y = 4.45 · UST3MO = 3.78 · T10Y3M = 0.67 · T10Y2Y = 0.40

Related
Sahm RuleCredit-Spread Regime (HY OAS)Misery IndexReal Yield × BreakevenFinancial Conditions (NFCI)