Sahm Rule (real-time)
Labor · FRED/Treasury · SAHMREALTIME
What this measures. Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months. This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the…
The latest reading sits at MID relative to this series' own history (797 observations) — a statement of where it is in its range, not a forecast. Hover the chart for values; the marked point is the most recent observation.
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